tera power leveling even the plastic operation of crude oil with the United States than for 25 - SF

-Hua Guo beginning in August 2011, Dalian plastic (l) and declining crude oil prices in New York.　　We believe that in 2012, a price will be fixed, plastic underestimated the value of status is improved, medium-term can carry of crude oil to buy plastic parabolic action. Price is low according to our analysis, at present L1205 and05 NYMEX crude oil contract price is 95-100 low bands, the probability for excessive fixed prices up in the future.　　And domestic futures market in the near future because of the positive news boosted during the two sessions, show signs of warmer, while crude oil after first round of rally, still high turbulence patterns tera power leveling, the resulting arbitrage operations across a variety of spaces. View of NYMEX standard contract for crude oil unit is too large (minimum trading unit is 1000 barrels) tera power leveling, use the MINI contract (minimum trading unit of 500 barrels) to operate. In accordance with the principle of equivalent, even the plastic operation of crude oil with the United States than for 25:1, stop-loss points can be set up for the price of 15 (according to the removed exchange rates impact price), Ying points can be set up for the price of 18-20.　　Currently both prices of about 16, if prices return to 18, the yields of up to 50.9%. Plastic crude oil rangebound is expected to rise from a cost point of view, neither the LLDPE, vinyl is upstream, production profit in the downward trend. According to 895 dollars/ton (CFR Japan) and US $ 882/MT (FOB newSlope) spot price of naphtha, ethylene cracker cash cost: $ 1203/ton in Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia us $ 1203/ton; cash margin--123 and 103 USD/ton respectively USD/ton. Linear is also at the edge of a loss. On the whole, linear production in a few non-profits, to a certain extent, to block the decrease in space;The losses continued, petrochemical plants reduce the likelihood of more in the near future, LLDPE there supply or periodic tensions contribute to the rise in prices. Crude oil, benefited from United States economic data improving, and the instability of the situation in the Middle East, oil price has recently moved the center of gravity. But is worthy of note, is BRENT crude of more influence on the Middle East, andWTI limited impact; and United States better economic data may be more due to seasonal factors, so whether the impact on oil prices can continue to be seen.　　Therefore, we believe that the medium-term maintenance of crude oil at $ 100 large upper and lower probability of shock. Statistical data either from the price history or a fundamental point of view, have indicated that the medium-term price up repair of both were more likely to, Operation feasibility of strong buy even the plastic behind the United States crude oil. But at the same time we also noted that from 2011 onwards and even plastic and correlation of crude oil in the United States has declined tera gold, so buy plastic cast of crude oil in the United States there are also certain risk arbitrage operation, it is recommended that investors ' positions should not be too heavy, and set stop loss orders.