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Shanghai, January 30--problem: Iran EU "oil war" disrupt the international oil market domestic fuel prices but also "looked up"? 　　Xinhua reporter Liu Xue, Miranda Wang and Chen Yun fu Dragon beginning of Iran and the European Union between the "oil war" continued deduction, makes geopolitical current maximum disturbance factors of international crude oil market. International oilPrice support, three changes have 15 consecutive trading days so far higher crude oil, refined oil price adjustment window looming. 　　Experts believe that if international oil prices continue to remain high, recent domestic finished oil prices could face increases risk. "Oil war" neither the year during the Spring Festival, the world's major oil-producing Heartland caused instability of North Africa in the international oil priceRoads soared. 　　Beginning of the year, waves from the situation in the Persian Gulf, OPEC major oil producers and EU Iran fired an "oil war". January 23, adopted by the EU Foreign Ministers meeting on Iran's oil embargo, prohibiting Member States from Iran imports petroleum and Iran Central Bank the application of sanctions. In response, the 29th, Iran expressed its intention to stop supplying the EU oil5 to 15 years, and again threatened to blockade the maritime oil transport important crossing the Strait of Hormuz. 　　In the view of experts, Iran and the EU between this "oil war" are not beneficial to both parties. Yu Zhang Yonghao, information analyst believes that through the EU sanctions against Iran consensus the main driving force from the United States, which is inconsistent with the interests of the European Union. Italy and other countries currently miredThe debt crisis, stop facing Iran imported crude oil to find alternative channel will inevitably lead to another wave of economic instability, which is heavily in debt of EU countries was undoubtedly worse. As for Iran, the oil is Iran's main export product, is the Government's main source of revenue. Blocked oil exports to the EU will also affect Iran's oil export earnings. It is worth noting thatIs that because Iran oil export area in Asia, the EU embargo sanctions short term cannot hurt Iran, on the contrary, if Iran halted Iran oil exports to Europe, Italy and other countries, it may really be "make false countercharges". China International Futures said Senior Analyst Liu Yaqin, now Iran has become the international oil market most of shadowResponse factors. 　　Although Iran will intensify the problem yet to be observed but the dispute would be as speculative funds provided an excuse for long on oil prices, when international crude oil market will again waves, high oil prices against the global economic recovery. Too many interleaving 2012 international oil prices, the global economic Outlook uncertain, various influencing factors on the intricacies of international crude oil market, the internationalOil market will interpret difficult conclusion. 　　Overall, experts believe that geopolitical factors, financial factors of risk aversion and deterioration of the European debt crisis affecting factors such as the emerging economies, is likely to become a 2012 running three international oil price uncertainty. First, the factors affecting the situation in the Middle East is the largest international oil price movements. Shanghai Academy of social sciences, Director of the Europe and AsiaJian Hua believes that Iran is the world's third-largest oil exporter and export oil through the Strait of Hormuz 40% per cent of the volume of world trade, so once a military conflict, international oil prices soaring. Productivity promotion center of circulation experts said Chen Kexin, if there are no negative factors inhibiting the European debt crisis, Iran situation led to oil prices is likely to have risen to 120 dollars a barrel, geopolitical factors continued to perform to the outbreak of war, oil prices rose to $ 200/barrel is not impossible. Second, capital flight or help push oil prices up. Energy Economics and strategic research center, Fudan University, Shanghai Executive Vice Director Wu Libo believes that the longer European debt crisis, speculative capital in the Euro-bond selling trend will further increaseAdded. 　　Financial properties of international crude oil market is very strong, if high oil prices, must be because of capital flight led to, rather than promoting the real economy. Finally, the European debt crisis continues fermentation brings serious challenges to global economic recovery, affecting international oil price movements. Research Center of China University of petroleum China energy strategy analysis of Wang Zhen, the Executive Director said that the European debt crisis will have on newDeveloping economies have much of an impact is a key factor affecting international oil price movements. Domestic price adjustment window looming because of China's refined oil pricing mechanism linked to international oil prices, therefore, the international market ups and downs of relationships with domestic audiences of high and low cost of living. Last year Libya under push international oil prices continued to soar, once domestic finished oil prices brushNew all-time high. Domestic fuel prices this year is record high again? 　　Beginning of the year, fuel prices are raised again? 　　Under the international oil price support, recent domestic oil product pricing reference crude rate of change in the three places have 15 consecutive trading day higher, even bodies to monitor value has exceeded the 4% adjusting red line. Because of the countryThe relevant departments to change rate of crude oil has not reported three more algorithm, calculating any biases in the data of various research institutions, general trends are rising. According to interest An Xun thinking energy monitoring, as of January 27, Brent, Dubai, Cinta crude rate of change in the three places of 4.1%, there are more than adjusting red line, and 15 consecutive trading days kept rising trend. Energy Research Institute EastMeasurement of oil and gas network, as of January 27, three with a crude rate of change of 3.436%, the same winning run 15 trading days. "Oil price adjustment can achieve in the near future is still uncertain. "Eastern network of oil and gas analyst Cheng Ruifeng, ruobulunte oil prices near $ 111 a barrel, it is difficult to price conditions are met; if Brent rose to $ 113 a barrelAnd keep a week, is expected to open in early February price adjustment window. Interest An Xun SI Liao Kaishun energy analysts said even if the current oil price adjustment window open, taking into account the internal situation during Spring Festival, adjusting time point may backward delays. (End) (Editor: Enami)