some funds may be withdrawn

During the G20 Summit, Greece "referendum" proposal has sparked turmoil in global financial markets. Follow is Italy's political movement, ruling 17 years of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi resigns, technical official MarioPlight exposed. As European debt crisis continues to deepen, and differences between EU Member States has risen. 　　The 14th of this month, Germany Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union, through the main capital stocks (eleven-twenty fifths) unit fled to cut meat must regret having sudden boom is not likely in a move investors Gospel: hold stocks saved! OneResolution to allow Member States do not give up voluntarily leave the eurozone under the precondition of EU membership. How to assess Greece leave the eurozone, and raising the possibility of risk? European debt crisis from spreading to China and the world what kind of impact? Faced with the deterioration of the external environment, domestic macroeconomic policy choices? To answer the above questions, this issue this newspaper had an interview with China finance 40Members of the Forum, Asian emerging markets research at Barclays Capital, Chief Analyst Huang yiping, an, Chief Economist at BNP Paribas Asia Securities Chen Xing, is for the 21st century Beijing round table No. 321.　　Rescue and reform of the game theory of the evolution of European debt crisis shows that do not match the euro system and the financial crunch was born. Of the 21st century: How do you see theItalian and Greece between political change?　　By means of a financial squeeze out of the crisis, not obstruction because democracy, nothing came of that? Huang yiping, an: now this is real is to put those expert people in Government, so as to get rid of all democratic constraints on the macro-policy. Conversely, why such a big problem in Europe? Fiscal contraction, why is it so hard?Original designs in the euro zone and in fact are relevant. Distribution of the Monetary Union does not have financial, political and Union together, each country facing public pressure is not quite the same, particularly when the Government is democratic election cycle, stress from various interest groups, tightening is always unpopular and that is why Greece, and Italy finally asked the Government to step down. Evolution of European debt crisisShow that does not match the euro system and the financial crunch was born.　　Like Italy, its new Government more definite, excluding exceptional circumstances, the new Government will not seek re-election, so it's job is to clean up the debt problem, which avoided the original Government does everything has to consider a second term next constraint. Chen Xing: to rescue Greece, much effort, the EU leaders introduced a rescue party, And Greece, Prime Minister Papandreou announced the referendum, not because you want to reject the implementation of the programme, but rather the lack of political base, which embarked on a difficult case to. Referendum proposed events, greatly damaging the Greece and the EU's credibility. Resolution of the European debt crisis, needs EU leaders demonstrated proactive and strong sense of commitment and appearanceShow a high degree of solidarity.　　But Greece make the world aware of the referendum, the EU's leadership are not United, which greatly undermines the confidence of States in the EU, before European debt crisis is resulting in many supportive country retreat. Italy's Berlusconi to step down, and Greece similar pressures. If you want a European financial stability Fund aidProfit subject to fiscal reform, take strict austerity policy, Berlusconi is not supported by the opposition parties, there are dissenting voices within the ruling party. Monte and his successor, current popular Italy at all levels of support, academic background and track record is very good in politics. Italy and Greece, the programme is clear, the key is how to persuade people to accept and implement. The Greek CypriotPapademos La's new Prime Minister and Italy's Mario Monti, is technology-oriented officials, they promote reforms have had a lot of hope.　　At this stage, the most suitable candidates who carry out financial reforms. Greece's debt crisis is very serious, but Italy issues much better. Italy's population is relatively affluent, Italy national bond 60% are held by their own people. Seen from the economic aggregate, Italy is ranked seventh in the world (IMF,2010) of the economy. Italy national in the face of a crisis often exceptions solidarity, Italy is the ability to get out of the current difficulties. For Greece, unless you have like Germany so that rich countries to save, otherwise rely solely on its own forces, Greece out of crisisVery slim hope of machine.　　The eurozone: sliding into the abyss?　　Greece exit will increase the European crisis of liquidity crunch in the banking and financial system. Of the 21st century: how to assess recent Greece exit possibilities and the risks of the euro?　　Systemic flaws in the eurozone how long does it take time for correction? Tran Hung DAO: Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel partyA vote adopted a resolution in favour of the euro area Member States conditional withdrawal of the euro zone, but may remain in the EU. In my opinion diablo 3 power leveling, this resolution is for Greece. By establishing an exit mechanism, after persuading Greece actively leave the eurozone, this is possible. Greece if you exit will cause three results: first, Greece very smooth exit, not on the euro have a significantShock, get rid of the burden but may strengthen the position of the euro. Second, Greece after exiting the eurozone will be a serious debt default. According to the resolution of October 27, European banks on Greece debt writedown of over 50%, even 60%, also 40% debt, Greece exit will increase in Europe's liquidity crunch in the banking sector and financialDepartment of crisis. Third, may cause the euro to crash, it was the worst result, but right now, European leaders are trying their best to maintain the integrity of the euro, European financial stability Fund to buy some time, observing the evolution of the crisis, making medium-to long-term plans. The European banks are therefore now, facing great financial pressure. The large European banks believe that before the financialPeriods of six years of reform, but there are only a dozen a month, according to the requirements of the European Union, to the middle of 2013 European banks ' capital adequacy ratio to increase to 9%, the financial pressure was enormous. Debt reduction notes on bear more losses on the one hand, on the other hand to deleveraging, reducing risk assets ratio to meet capital adequacy requirements, but also back in the marketOn the funding, it adds uncertainty about the future of the eurozone. Huang yiping, an: if Greece out of the eurozone, there are two possible reactions: first, Greece will not be the first, people sceptical about the prospects for the euro; second, Greece was most vulnerable and those most at risk in the euro area countries, if it exits, exiting or another country, also did not rule out everyone in the short term for the rest of the euroRelatively optimistic. But from Greece point of view, we should first consider withdrawing from the current situation will improve. On one hand, and Greece now already bad economy, affected by the constraints of the euro, currency cannot be depreciated, resulting in economic difficulties exacerbated; on the other hand, supported by the euro-market Greece's confidence has not suffered a big blow if Greece exit,May be a double blow to its fiscal and monetary policies.　　Greece yields more than 30%, if redesigning its own currency, there will definitely be crashing down, this is good or bad about it, yet it's hard to say. Euro repair process, already has a new consensus on the need to follow the path of fiscal Union or political Union. The eurozone was first established, many experts are availableCan also see a common currency and spreading of mismatch between fiscal, but did not expect so serious. What to do next, is very clear. Could you prepare, how to do the sacrifice and resource integration? Do not know. Even if you do, is not resolved within the short term. The worst result is that the disintegration of the European Union diablo 3 gold, I do not rule out this possibility, but it's more like a medium to long term thanShort term results.　　China's role and choice of monetary policy to fine-tune can, but a fundamental reversal of timing is not yet mature. Of the 21st century: China among the aid the EU should play a role?　　How to formulate sound scale of aid and conditions? Huang yiping, an: the so-called relief or resolution of the debt risk, the core issue is how can liability rate drop toSustainable level, including: total liabilities share GDP, which related to economic growth and other factors; yields, if yields are too high, no matter how low indebtedness continues indefinitely.　　Therefore, financial need to tighten, but if you're already bad economy and sharply tightening, on economic growth are worse, so, external aid, which is quite useful. OnCountries, it is necessary to actively participate in the rescue, China is the world's second-largest economy, the effects are global, should bear the international responsibility; second, European stability is essential for China's economic growth, Europe is the one-fourth of China's export markets, but not other effects. A participatory approach is best coordinated through international organizations, China themselves, with some conditions, in thisMore difficult at a time, won't have an effect on long-term relationships. After all, we have differences in institutional and other aspects, and history, big aid small, little finally got good results.　　Therefore, participation in international organizations, whether through EU, IMF and the G20, the result would be good. Return on funding the core is, exclusion of disintegration of the European Union mayAnd European assets now are very cheap, is an opportunity for investment. Relief there are two ways: first, the Government, Central Bank direct participation in European government bond markets, two particularly valuable good brands company, is.　　Europe now ran into financial difficulties, the asset prices were very low, but the company is excellent, making direct investment more meaningful. Of the 21st century: year 1To October, China's foreign trade import and export value growth over the same period 24.3%, back 12%, with exports growing 22%, down 10.7%.　　The deepening of European debt crisis will affect our economy? Chen Xing: first is the impact of mood and confidence. European debt crisis and the deterioration of the spread will spread to China and the world, so thatOur assessment of the external environment even more pessimistic. A cold wind blows, whatever clothing thickness, can feel. Second, the eurozone faces a deleveraging process, you need to reset the capital would lead to withdrawal of large amounts of hot money. Although we do not welcome the massive influx of hot money, but money comes in quickly withdrawn at a later, will have great impact on stability of our monetary policy implementation. 9Reserves a net decrease of $ 60 billion of the month, October net loss of $ 201 billion yuan deposits, I am afraid that capital outflow and relevant. Third is the impact on exports, as China's largest export market in Europe, the recession led to a decline in demand in Europe will lead to the decline in exports. Four is the influence of foreign direct investment in Europe is a very important investment funds of ChinaSources, some funds may be withdrawn, for example, established a branch in China's enterprises, the parent company, which went wrong, it will shrink front, reduction or withdrawal of investment in China.　　All these effects would have a knock-on effect and overlay effects, accelerating domestic macroeconomic slowdown. Huang yiping, an: I think the economy next year will not be particularly good, but not a severe recession. First look at the United States, althoughSo it has a range of issues, including the financial, real estate, after adjusting for these factors, it is also the most stable growth. Next year's United States there will be a growth rate of 1.5% per cent, although not enough to solve its domestic economic conflicts, particularly the problem of unemployment, but it is steady growth rather than recession. Europe is similar, Europe's problem is the lack of political decision-making and coordinationNot short of money.　　Germany, EU, IMF has sufficient resources to manage these, only now more political constraints, we are not willing to sacrifice in the short term. EU economic contraction of edge, but the core countries continues to grow should be no problem. In foreign words, is constantly playing forward through a small drum, walked up to make life difficult, and toFront kick, this case economy no better, are unlikely to decline. Slow economic growth, exports will still be growing.　　The worst situation is in the East Asian crisis and China's exports fell sharply when the subprime crisis, serious consequences for the domestic economy this; we could see nothing but export growth fell without a crash occurs. Of the 21st century: OctoberLoans increased by $ 586.8 billion, increased by more than $ 17.5 billion. This is a monetary policy "fine-tuning" the starting point?　　External environment of the European debt crisis continues to worsen, an easing trend in the domestic economy are becoming increasingly clear that macroeconomic policies should continue to wait and see as soon as possible is a choice? Chen Xing: China's economic growth needed to maintain a steady state. A certain degree of slowdown is affordable, But the sharp decline in economic growth should be avoided. Next year if economic growth continues downward, raises many questions. For now, economic slowdown, mainly due to two factors, one is the external environment, the second is the tightening of macroeconomic policies. From the market, over the past year, especially since the beginning of macro-control policy seems to be too tight, the macroCorrective actions may be premature, but in fact, this is the last round of excessive expansion for the correction of the result. But in the process of policy change in the financing difficulties of SMEs, and other issues to the fore, policymakers are aware, therefore proposes to fine-tune and preconditioning. At this stage, the adjusted rate can be increased, but the shift from a moderately tight monetary policy before it is too early for relax. Even though the economicIs a more substantial decline further stimulus package introduced in 2008 as there is little chance of. Huang yiping, an: tune has already started, as we have been exploring micro-enterprise financing problem. But loans increased also has a background, continuous decline in the total amount of Community financing. For quite some time in the past, the table foreign investment in the industry works in the total amount of Community financingIncreasing the proportion of, but recently because of a default, risk, cost increases, those activities are no longer as active as ever, the deposit could return to banks. The other hand, we say that lending is that monetary policy easing, is now probably more in the case of total amount of Community financing to continue downward or stable, the structure has changed. Therefore, said monetary policy to fine-tuneIs fine, but a fundamental reversal of time is not ripe. China's overall macroeconomic situation is still relatively healthy, even if economic growth falling in the fourth quarter, could slip to below 9%, but not the need to stimulate; inflation down, but still above 5%. No matter which indexes from, cannot be said that inflationary pressures and overheating has completely disappeared, monetaryRapid reversal of the policy reason is not very good. The key now is to digest these problems in the past, you must be a thrifty life, not just tightening, overall economic conditions can also be result due to complaints from industry, sector, last and let go. So, in the short term pain is gone, long-term pain.