Hang Seng Bank

For the moment, the eurozoneEconomic Outlook and forecasts are expressed a pessimistic views on the euro. Conversely, although United States weak economic growth, slower, but less likely to fall into recession.　　In the United States launched the third round of the quantitative easing policy before QE3, dollar index is expected to rebound. Due to the slowdown in the developed countries have been involved in export-oriented emerging market countries, the AustralianA further decrease in may, but is unlikely to significantly decline.　　Concern the yen, the Swiss franc's safe-haven status cannot be secured, the yen has become a safe currency in the market turmoil. EUR/USD euro ushered in the most difficult moments of euro debt problems can be described as a wave of open another. Following the Italy Greece pushed the forefront after November14th Germany free exit through the Act, allowing countries without abandoning the EU Member States subject to opt out of the eurozone.　　Threat of disintegration of the 14 years since the founding of the eurozone. For the euro is, the two biggest threats come from the economic slowdown in Europe and the European Central Bank taking quantitative easing monetary policy. Since September, the euro-zone debt crisis and evilEurozone services and manufacturing production appeared in their first decline in two years, UBS in a recent report published by Euro-2012 fall in GDP growth estimates from 1% to just 0.2%, and is expected to the first half of 2012 euro zone into recession.　　Market forecasts, the European Central Bank may follow fed the purpose of quantitative easing policy. Standard Chartered in recentPublishing market investigation pointed out that, due to the slowdown in European growth and to adopt a lenient policy, and in cases of increased risk aversion, the dollar was supported and erosion performance of the euro in September and early October. Launch perfect programme to assist in European Governments before the resolution of sovereign debt crisis, the euro will continue to maintain a weak. Standard Chartered global research team expects euro/Dollar by the end of will hit a 1.28 price over time.　　UBS Singapore currency strategists are expected the old republic power leveling, the EUR/USD fell to 1.35 material within 1 month, 3 month and 12 months respectively to 1.3 and 1.25. Australian dollar/US dollar economic slowdown dragged down Australian dollars, Hang Seng Bank, in its latest quarterly investment Outlook as stated in the, Despite the Australian dollar fell sharply after that exchange rates have a larger appeal, but there are still may fall further. Analysis of Hang Seng Bank, the main reason for this is that the global economic Outlook bleak. On one hand, Europe and Japan's economy can't see signs; the other hand, have maintained high rates of growth in emerging markets also appeared in the economic slowdown. This is because, for most of theEmerging market countries, such as China and India are among the export-led economic model of economic development. When exports because the United States and the economic downturn and a sharp decline in Europe, emerging-market countries difficult to compensate for the growth through increased domestic demand in the short term.　　As commodity money, Australian dollar and the price trends of commodities to a large extent the same. However, the long term,Australian dollar/US dollar upside potential.　　Is 2012 Australia iron ore exports is expected to increase; the second is the United States in the third round of quantitative easing if launched the dollar will be vulnerable. Standard Chartered believes that China's economy will experience a soft landing because Australia through commodity exports and China closely linked to commodity prices rebound, the Australian dollar lossRelatively limited.　　Standard Chartered forecast in 2012 before the rally, AUD/USD price will hit to the 0.91 at the end of this year. However, need to be reminded investors that the Australian dollar has beenCould not freely convertible will be converted, the Australian dollar to a large extent replaced by international investors as a product of China's currency. Dollar/Yen Yen becomes favorite haven because of Switzerland's Central Bank announced the Swiss franc and the euro exchange rate levels set in 1.2, and always be unlimited purchase of foreign exchange, sold their own currency prepared yen as the dollar only outside security currency, dramatic increase in pressure. SeaFunds for hot holding Yen assets, made the dollar against the yen after the currency fell below 80 Yen mark in early July this year, has been hit, and on October 31, fell to 75.32, refresh the currency since the second world war, the lowest level. However star wars the old republic power leveling, for Japan for the Government sustained appreciation in the yen would mean Japan exports bring about a catastrophe. Since September last yearSince Japan's Central Bank intervene in the exchange rate on four occasions, it has also become an important factor affecting dollar-Yen exchange rate.　　But Standard Chartered global research team believes that Japan's Central Bank interventions focused on dollar-Yen remains at 76 per cent of the price, rather than actively engage devaluation of Japanese yen. In addition, $ factors also have an impact on the dollar/Yen exchange rate, constantOpinion of a health Bank, after the Fed launched distort operation, United States 2-year benchmark bond rates increased significantly. Since the dollar rising borrowing costs, future investors to sell the yen, helped the yen fell back to the level of 80 per cent before the end. But Standard Chartered believes that although the United States and Japan between spreads continued to expand, and coarctation of the trade balance, against the yen by the end ofWill remain in the vicinity of 76.